Institutional evolutions for aquatic food production along "No Land" and "No Trade" triggered tipping points

Three billion people rely on fisheries as the main protein source, and about half of fisheries production comes from aquaculture. What institutional changes underlie the notable growth of the aquaculture sector and how may these institutions shift under "No Land" and "No Trade" scenarios? We focus on the Philippines as a case study and explore trade links with Germany in this globalised market to unpack the institutions-aquaculture-food security nexus.  

The fisheries sector plays an important role in achieving food security for the present and the future. At the global scale, consumption of fish protein is shifting from capture fisheries to aquaculture. This study is designed to build understanding of institutional changes underlying the marine and aquatic food sector, and to draw on this understanding for foresight under "No Land" and "No Trade" scenarios. It is important to understand processes of institutional change because institutions are recognised as levers for sustainability. To better prepare for "No Land" and "No Trade" scenarios, we will need to know how institutions have evolved, and the processes of change that they are likely to undergo. As an analogue for "No Land" , we empirically investigate institutional change in an area that has experienced a shift from a dominance of capture fisheries to intensified aquaculture. The focus is on the province of Bulacan in the Philippines. The results are expected to contribute to a better understanding of the complexity of fisheries-related institutions particularly in a Global South setting where much of the world‘s aquatic food imports are sourced. For the "No Trade", we will draw on literature and secondary data to investigate the potential ways that institutions in Germany might evolve to support sufficient aquatic food production.

Text: A.-K. Hornidge, A. Schlüter, A. Manlosa, ZMT

Mariculture in the Philippines.