food4future Scenarios - No Land and No Trade

In order to make future challenges and changes in society and the use of available resources more comprehensible, food4future works with future scenarios, a method of socio-economic research. These future scenarios, and especially extreme scenarios, help to make future trends, technological opportunities, global changes or even possible impending crises visible.

Within the framework of food4future, two extreme scenarios were developed, which address the challenges of future food security.

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Move blinking dot(s) in the diagram for different scenarios
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In the interactive graphic, along the coordinates of the food4future extreme scenarios "No Land" and "No Trade", the development of the mega-trends "Natural Food" and "Designed Food" (designer food specifically adapted to individual needs) are shown. Additionally, the interaction and changes in society are visualized.

"No Land" 

This scenario considers the consequences of a progressive shortage of land for food production. Traditional agriculture is only possible to a limited extent, so alternative areas must be included for food production. Therefore, urban space will become more important for food production and urban areas, such as roofs, cellars or tunnels will be used to provide sufficient healthy food.

"No Trade"

Another scenario deals with the possibility that trade relations will become increasingly difficult and partitioning of markets between states increases as well, so that import and export of agricultural goods will only be possible to a very limited extent. Current events, such as brexite, but also the trade conflict between America and China, motivate this extreme scenario. Within the "No Trade" scenario, an efficient basic food supply is a priority. Animal products probably will have a high price and available land is needed for basic food production. A Decentralized and individual (private) production to supplement the daily diet will be attractive or necessary, and alternative food sources such as insects as protein suppliers, will become more attractive.